[Analysis methods and case analysis of effect modification (3): effect modification in individual patient data Meta-analysis].

This paper briefly introduces the unique advantages, overall analysis ideas and existing analysis methods of individual patient data Meta-analysis in terms of effect modification. In addition to Meta-regression and subgroup analysis, this paper also introduces the analysis methods based on part of individual patient data integrated with aggregated data and summarizes the current reporting of the above mentioned methods. In addition, the application and results interpretation of the above mentioned methods in individual patient data Meta-analysis are presented in this paper by taking "Effects of sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitors on SBP in patients with type 2 diabetes" as an example and by introducing their advantages and limitations.

[Analysis methods and case analysis of effect modification (2): effect modification in network Meta-analysis].

This paper briefly introduces the characteristics, research significance, and global reporting status of effect modification in network Meta-analysis, demonstrates the heterogeneity caused by effect modification in network Meta-analysis, and emphasizes the importance of exploring effect modification in network Meta-analysis. This paper also summarizes the normalized description and analysis strategies of effect modification in network Meta-analysis. Finally, by the case of "comparison of efficacy of three new hypoglycemic drugs in reducing body weight in type 2 diabetes patients", this paper demonstrates the realization of subgroup analysis and network Meta-regression in exploring effect modification, summarizes the advantages and disadvantages of the two methods, to provide references for future researchers.

[Progress in methodological research on bridging the efficacy-effectiveness gap of clinical interventions (1): to improve the validity of real-world evidence].

Objective: Differences between randomized controlled trial (RCT) results and real world study (RWS) results may not represent a true efficacy-effectiveness gap because efficacy-effectiveness gap estimates may be biased when RWS and RCT differ significantly in study design or when there is bias in RWS result estimation. Secondly, when there is an efficacy- effectiveness gap, it should not treat every patient the same way but assess the real-world factors influencing the intervention's effectiveness and identify the subgroup likely to achieve the desired effect. Methods: Six databases (PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, CNKI, Wanfang Data, and VIP) were searched up to 31st December 2022 with detailed search strategies. A scoping review method was used to integrate and qualitatively describe the included literature inductively. Results: Ten articles were included to discuss how to use the RCT research protocol as a template to develop the corresponding RWS research protocol. Moreover, based on correctly estimating the efficacy-effectiveness gap, evaluate the intervention effect in the patient subgroup to confirm the subgroup that can achieve the expected benefit-risk ratio to bridge the efficacy-effectiveness gap. Conclusion: Using real-world data to simulate key features of randomized controlled clinical trial study design can improve the authenticity and effectiveness of study results and bridge the efficacy-effectiveness gap.

[Analysis methods and case analysis of effect modification (1): effect modification in epidemiology and traditional Meta-analysis].

This paper briefly introduces the definition, classification and significance of effect modification in epidemiological studies, summarizes the difference between effect modifier and confounders, and analyze the influence as well as the role of effect modification in epidemiological studies and Meta-analysis. In this paper, the possible scenarios of effect modification and related analysis strategy in Meta-analysis are indicated by graphics, aiming to arouse researchers' attention to effect modification. This paper also demonstrates how to identify and deal with effect modification in Meta-analysis through a study case of "Efficacy of sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitors in patients with type 2 diabetes", and shows the analysis process and interpretation of results of subgroup analysis and Meta-regression methods respectively. The advantages and disadvantages of these two methods are summarized to provide reference for the method selection of future research.

[Methods for controlling and evaluating residual confounding in the association analysis of observational study with a multicenter database].

The observational research based on big data in healthcare has attracted increasing attention, with the control and evaluation of residual confounding being the critical issue that needs to be solved urgently. This review summarized the methods for statistical adjustment and sensitivity analysis of residual confounding in the association analysis with a multicenter database. Based on individual-level data, the residual confounding can be adjusted in each subcenter using methods such as regression discontinuity design, while the pooled estimate can be obtained as a weighted average. Based on the center-level results, the Bayesian Meta-analysis method can adjust the pooled estimates. The sensitivity analysis of residual confounding can also be carried out using center-level data to calculate the E-value, p^(q), T^(r, q) and G^r,q. The abovementioned methods should be selected reasonably according to the requirements for practical applications, advantages, and disadvantages. For example, the use of subcenter individual data for residual confounding adjustment usually needs strict study design and frequent coordination; the Bayesian Meta-analysis is based on some strong assumptions; the interpretation of the results in the sensitivity analysis, such as E-value requires professional judgment to assess the risk of residual confounding. Therefore, the methods for controlling and evaluating residual confounding in association analysis based on multicenter databases still need further development and improvement.

[Methodology and progress in adjusting time-dependent covariates in clinical prediction models].

Adjusting time-dependent covariates into prediction models may help improve model performance and expand clinical applications. The methodology of handling time-dependent covariates is limited in traditional regression strategies (i.e., landmark model, joint model). For example, the number of predictors and practical situations which can be handled are restricted when using regression models. One new strategy is to use machine learning (i.e., neural networks). This review summarizes the methodology of handling time-dependent covariates in prediction models, such as applicable scenarios, strengths, and limitations, to offer methodological enlightenment for processing time-dependent covariates.

[Research on indicators of ideological and political resource database construction for curriculum of "Epidemiology"].

Objective: To construct indicators of the ideological and political resource database construction for the curriculum of "Epidemiology". Methods: Two rounds of expert consultation were conducted in 15 experts from 4 universities and 1 textbook publishing house using the Delphi method, and the importance and feasibility scores of the indicators were calculated with the degree of concentration and coordination of experts' opinions. Results: In the two rounds of consultation, the experts' positive coefficient of the two questionnaires were both 100.00% (15/15), the authoritative coefficients of experts were both 0.83, and the Kendall's W was 0.27 (P<0.05) and 0.33 (P<0.05), respectively. Consensus was reached on 4 primary indicators and 31 secondary indicators. Conclusion: The process of this study is scientific, and the indicators for the construction of ideological and political resource database for the curriculum of "Epidemiology" are authoritative, which can promote the establishment of ideological and political resource database for the curriculum of "Epidemiology".

[Introduction of a tool to assess Risk of Bias in Non-randomized Studies-of Exposure (2022)].

This article introduces the contents of the latest edition Risk of Bias in Non-randomized Studies-of Exposure (ROBINS-E) published in June 2022 [ROBINS-E (2022)], and gives some examples about its usage. ROBINS-E is a tool for assessing the risk of bias in non-randomized studies-of exposure. Compared with ROBINS-E (2019), ROBINS-E (2022) adds more bias for observational studies, covers a more comprehensive range of bias, and adds the assessment of the external authenticity of the study. ROBINS-E (2022) adds a preliminary evaluation process to improve the efficiency of evaluation. In addition, ROBINS-E (2022) visualizes and instrumentalizes the use of signal problems in the form of path graph, making it more convenient to use. ROBINS-E (2022), although more consideration has been given to the issue of co-exposure, still does not address the problem of effect modification in co-exposure, and there is still room to expand the applicable research.

[Epidemiological study of incidence of systematic lupus erythematosus in Yinzhou, Ningbo, 2016-2021].

Objective: To characterize the incidence density of systematic lupus erythematosus (SLE) in Yinzhou District of Ningbo from 2016 to 2021, and compare the age and gender specific differences. Methods: A retrospective cohort study was conducted based on the related data from 2015 to 2021 collected from the Health Information Platform of Yinzhou. Suspected SLE cases in local residents were identified by fuzzy matching of International Classification of Diseases 10th edition code "M32" or Chinese text "lupus". The classification criteria from Systemic Lupus International Collaboration Clinics-2012 and The European League Against Rheumatism/American College of Rheumatology-2019 were used for case verification. SLE cases were identified with specific algorithm based on verification results, and new cases were identified with 1 year as the washout period. The incidence density and 95%CI were estimated by Poisson distribution. Results: From 2016 to 2021, a total of 1 551 921 permanent residents were registered in Yinzhou, in whom 51.52% were women. The M(Q1,Q3) age at enrollment was 40.38 (27.54, 53.54) years. The M(Q1,Q3) of follow-up person-years was 3.83 (0.41, 5.83) years. There were 451 new SLE cases, in which 352 were women (78.05%). The 6-year incidence density was 8.14/100 000 person-years (95%CI: 7.41/100 000 person-years-8.93/100 000 person-years) for the total population, 3.68/100 000 person-years (95%CI: 2.99/100 000 person-years-4.48/100 000 person-years) for men and 12.37/100 000 person-years (95%CI: 11.11/100 000 person-years- 13.73/100 000 person-years) for women. The incidence density in men appeared a small peak at 20-29 years old, and began to increase with age from 40 years old. The incidence density in women was highest in age group 20-29 years (16.57/100 000 person-years) and remained to be high until 30-79 years old. The incidence density of SLE in Yinzhou show no significant temporal trend from 2016 to 2021 (men: P=0.848; women: P=1.000). Conclusions: The incidence density of SLE in Yinzhou from 2016 to 2021 was similar to those of other areas in China. SLE has a high incidence in women, especially in the young and elderly, suggesting that more attention should be paid to the diagnosis and treatment of SLE in women.

[A risk prediction model of cervical cancer developed based on nested case-control design].

Objective: To construct a cervical cancer risk prediction model based on nested case-control study design and Yinzhou Health Information Platform in Ningbo, and provide reliable reference for self-risk assessment of cervical cancer in local women. Methods: In local women aged 25-75 years old who had no history of cervical cancer registered in Yinzhou before October 31, 2018, a follow up was conducted for at least three years, the patients who developed cervical cancer during the follow up period were selected as the case group and matched with a control group at a ratio of 1∶10. The prediction indicators before the onset was used in model construction. Variables were selected by Lasso-logistic regression, the variables with non-zero ß were selected to fit the logistic regression model and Bootstrap was used for internal validation. The discrimination of the model was evaluated by area under the receiver operating characteristic curve(AUROC), and the calibration was evaluated by calibration curve and Hosmer-Lemeshow test. Results: The prediction indicators included in the final model were age, smoking status, history of cervicitis, history of adenomyosis, HPV testing, and thinprep cytologic test. The AUROC calculated in the internal validation was 0.740 (95%CI:0.739-0.740), and the calibration curve was almost identical with the ideal curve, P=0.991 in Hosmer-Lemeshow test, indicating that the model discrimination and calibration were good. Conclusions: In this study, a simple and practical cervical cancer risk prediction model was developed. The model can be used in general population with strong interpretability, good discrimination and calibration in internal validation, which can provide a reference for women to assess their risk of cervical cancer.

[Real-world evidence and randomized controlled trials: the initiation, implementation, progress interpretation and revelation of RCT DUPLICATE (part 1)].

In recent years, researchers, pharmaceutical companies, and political makers gradually using more real-world data (RWD) to produce real-world evidence (RWE) for policy-making. A research team of Harvard University launched the RCT DUPLICATE project in 2018, aiming to replicate 30 randomized controlled trials using the medical claims database in order to explore methods for quantifying the efficacy-effectiveness gap and explain its potential sources, to enhance the credibility of the RWE. This paper reviews the background of RCT DUPLICATE Initiative, highlights the research purposes, research design and implementation process of the RCT DUPLICATE Initiative, to help domestic scholars better understand the scope and application value of RWE.

[Real-world evidence and randomized controlled trials: the initiation, implementation, progress interpretation and revelation of RCT DUPLICATE (part 2)].

With the promotion and application of big medical data, non-interventional real-world evidence (RWE) has been used by regulators to assess the effectiveness of medical products. This paper briefly introduces the latest progress and research results of the RCT DUPLICATE Initiative launched by the research team of Harvard University in 2018 and summarizes relevant research experience based on the characteristics of China's medical service to provide inspiration and reference for domestic scholars to conduct related RWE research in the future.

[Progress in epidemiological research of 2019-nCoV infection and COVID-19 vaccination in pregnancy].

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is an acute respiratory infectious disease caused by 2019-nCoV. Due to the physiological change in pregnancy, pregnant women are susceptible to COVID-19 and are at increased risk for adverse pregnancy outcomes, especially in the context of spread of novel variants. At present, less evidences have been obtained from randomized controlled trials on the effectiveness and safety of COVID-19 vaccine use in pregnant women, and the recommendations of COVID-19 vaccination for pregnant women vary with countries, posing challenge to the prevention and control of COVID-19 in pregnant women. This paper summarizes the progress in major research of 2019-nCoV infection in pregnancy conducted both at home and abroad, describes the harm of COVID-19 in pregnancy to pregnant women, fetuses and infants and introduces the effectiveness and safety of COVID-19 vaccination in pregnancy revealed by real world studies in order to provide reference for the related research and development of COVID-19 prevention and control strategies in pregnant women.

[Epidemiological study on the incidence of rheumatoid arthritis in adults in Yinzhou district, Ningbo city from 2011-2020].

Objective: To describe the distribution and trend of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) in adults in the Yinzhou district from 2011 to 2020 and compare the incidence differences in different ages and genders. Methods: Using the retrospective cohort design, we collected all new cases diagnosed with RA between 2011 to 2020 from the Yinzhou Regional Health Information Platform (YRHIP). Poisson distribution was used to estimate RA's incidence density and 95%CI. Results: From 2011 to 2020, 1 280 012 permanent residents in Yinzhou district were included, of which 665 361 were female (51.98%). The total follow-up person-years were 7 198 513.61, and the median follow-up person-year was 5.41 years (P25=3.50, P75=8.32). During the study period, there were 2 350 new cases of RA, of which 1 460 were female (62.13%). The 10-year incidence density of the population was 32.65/100 000 person-years (95%CI: 31.34/100 000 person-years-33.99/100 000 person-years), that of females was 39.17/100 000 person-years (95%CI: 37.19/100 000 person-years-41.24/100 000 person-years), and that of the male was 25.64/100 000 person-years (95%CI: 23.98/100 000 person-years-27.38/100 000 person-years), the gender difference was statistically significant (P<0.001). The incidence risk in all age groups above 30 years old was higher than that in the 18-29 years old group (P<0.001), and the incidence risk increased with age from 18-79 years old while decreased slightly with age ≥80 years old. The lowest incidence density was 15.30/100 000 person-years in 2013 (95%CI:12.62/100 000 person-years-18.38/100 000 person- years), and the highest was 56.70/100 000 person-years in 2016 (95%CI: 51.24/100 000 person- years - 62.58/100 000 person-years), with statistically significant differences among different years (P=0.004). Conclusions: From 2011 to 2020, the incidence density of RA in adults in Yinzhou district first increased, then decreased, and tended to stabilize. There were differences in incidence density in different years, ages, and genders.

[Clinical research progress and implications of therapeutic vaccines for cervical cancer and precancerous lesions: a qualitative systematic review].

Objective: To systematically summarize and analyze the clinical research progress of therapeutic vaccines for cervical cancer or precancerous lesions. Methods: English databases (PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, Cochrane library, Proquest, and ClinicalTrails.gov) and Chinese databases (SinoMed, CNKI, WanFang, and VIP Database) were systematically searched to collect literature on therapeutic vaccines for cervical cancer or precancerous lesions from inception to February 18, 2021. After screening, we evaluated the risk of bias of included studies, and combed the basic information of the literature, research designs, information of vaccines, study patients, outcome indicators and so on, qualitatively summarized the clinical research progress. Results: A total of 71 studies were included in this systematic review, including 14 random controlled trials, 15 quasi-random controlled trials, 4 cohort studies, 1 case-control study, 34 case series studies and 3 case reports. The study patients included women aged 15~79 with cervical cancer or precancerous lesions in 18 countries from 1989 to 2021. On the one hand, there were 40 studies on therapeutic vaccines for cervical precancerous lesions (22 867 participants), involving 21 kinds of vaccines in 6 categories. Results showed 3 marketed vaccines (Cervarix, Gardasil, Gardasil 9) as adjuvant immunotherapies were significant effective in preventing the recurrence of precancerous lesions compared with the conization only. In addition, MVA E2 vaccine had been in phase Ⅲ clinical trials as a specific therapeutic vaccine, with relative literature showing it could eliminate most high-grade precancerous lesions. Therapeutic vaccines for precancerous lesions all showed good safety. On the other hand, there were 31 studies on therapeutic vaccines for cervical cancer (781 participants), involving 19 kinds of vaccines in 7categories, with none had been marketed. 25 studies were with no control group, showing the vaccines could effectively eliminate solid tumors, prevent recurrence, and prolong the median survival time. However, the vaccines effectiveness couldn't be statistically calculated due to the lack of a control group. As for the safety of therapeutic vaccines for cervical cancer, 9 studies showed that patients experienced serious adverse events after treatments, where 7 studies reported that serious adverse events occurred in patients couldn't be ruled out as the results of therapeutic vaccines. Conclusions: The literature review shows that the literature evidence for the therapeutic vaccines for cervical precancerous lesions is relatively mature compared with the therapeutic vaccines for cervical cancer. The four kinds of vaccines on the market are all therapeutic vaccines for precancerous lesions, but they are generally used as vaginal infection treatments or adjuvant immunotherapies for cervical precancerous lesions, not used for the specific treatments of cervical precancerous lesions. Other specific therapeutic vaccines are in the early stage of clinical trials, mainly phase Ⅰ/Ⅱ clinical trials with small sample size. The effectiveness and safety data are limited, and further research is still needed.

[Epidemiological study on the incidence of inflammatory bowel disease in Yinzhou District, Ningbo City from 2011 to 2020].

OBJECTIVE: To describe the distribution characteristics of inflammatory bowel disease among permanent residents in Yinzhou District, Ningbo City, and to understand the disease burden and development trend of inflammatory bowel disease in this area. METHODS: Using the retrospective cohort design, we collected the registration information of all permanent residents in the residents' health files of the Yinzhou Regional Health Information Platform from 2010 to 2020, and used electronic medical records to follow up their inflammatory bowel disease visits. A one-year wash-out period was set, and the patients who were diagnosed with the primary diagnosis for the first time after one year of registration were re-garded as new cases. The incidence density and 95% confidence interval (CI) of inflammatory bowel disease were estimated by Poisson distribution. RESULTS: From 2011 to 2020, a total of 1 496 427 permanent residents in Yinzhou District were included, of which 729 996 were male (48.78%). The total follow-up person-years were 8 081 030.82, and the median follow-up person-years were 5.41 [interquartile range (IQR): 5.29]. During the study period, there were 1 217 new cases of inflammatory bowel disease, of which males (624 cases, 51.27%) were more than females (593 cases, 48.73%). The total incidence density was 15.06/100 000 person-years (95%CI: 14.23, 15.93). Among all new cases, there were 1 106 cases (90.88%) of ulcerative colitis, with an incidence density of 13.69 per 100 000 person-years (95%CI: 12.89, 14.52); 70 cases (5.75%) of Crohn's disease, with an incidence density of 0.87 per 100 000 person-years (95%CI: 0.68, 1.09); and 41 cases (3.37%) of indeterminate colitis, with an incidence density of 0.51 per 100 000 person-years (95%CI: 0.36, 0.69). The median age of onset of ulcerative colitis was 50.82 years old (IQR: 18.77), with the highest proportion (15.01%) in the 45-49 years group. The incidence density of ulcerative colitis gradually increased with age, reaching a relatively high level in the 45-49 years group (20.53/100 000 person-years; 95%CI: 17.63, 23.78), followed by a slight increase. And the incidence density in the 65-69 years group was the highest (25.44/100 000 person-years; 95%CI: 20.85, 30.75), with a rapid decrease in the 75-79 years group. The median age of onset of Crohn's disease was 44.34 years (IQR: 33.41), with the highest proportion (12.86%) in the 25-29 years group. Due to the small number of new cases of Crohn's disease, the age distribution fluctuated greatly, with peaks both in young and old people. From 2011 to 2020, the incidence density of inflammatory bowel disease in Yinzhou District was at a low level from 2011 to 2013, and showed a rapid upward trend from 2014 to 2016, reaching a peak of 24.62 per 100 000 person-years in 2016 (95%CI: 21.31, 28.30), and slightly decreased in 2017-2020. CONCLUSION: The incidence density of inflammatory bowel disease in Yinzhou District from 2011 to 2020 was at a relatively high level, and medical institutions and health departments need to pay attention to the burden of disease caused by it.

[A qualitative systematic review and enlightenment of teaching models and evaluation in the general education of epidemiology in China and abroad].

Objective: This study aims to systematically sort out the effectiveness evaluation of the general education teaching models in epidemiology at home and abroad and provide a reference for the development and reform of epidemiology education. Methods: A systematic search of English databases such as PubMed, Embase, and Web of Science and Chinese databases such as CNKI, Sinomed, Wanfang, etc., were used to screen out the literature on different general teaching models of education in epidemiology. Each literature's teaching effect will be summarized and evaluated to conduct a systematic qualitative review in the narrative integration method, Results: A total of 45 articles (28 in Chinese and 17 in English) were included in this study, involving 14 teaching models, including mixed teaching models, PBL (problem-based learning), project designing models, and CBL (case-based learning) and other teaching models. Except for some teaching models such as project design, network platform, and flipped classroom model, the teaching effect of other innovative models is better than that of the traditional model. The distribution of teaching models was different in Chinese and foreign literature. Foreign teaching models were diverse, mainly concentrated in mixed teaching models and software/network platform learning. Domestic teaching models were relatively fixed. The mixed teaching model and PBL model were the most widely used in China, and there were fewer comparative studies between different teaching models than in foreign countries. Conclusion: General education in epidemiology is still in the early exploration stage. Compared with the traditional lecture model, the effect of various innovative teaching models has been improved. According to teaching objectives and student characteristics, we encourage extensive use of different teaching strategies, combining theoretical knowledge with practical applications and integrating epidemiological knowledge with inter-professional knowledge. Thus, students who can apply what they learn are becoming interdisciplinary talents our society needs.

[Strengthening the Reporting of Pharmacogenetic Studies (STROPS) guideline].

Pharmacogenetic studies are designed to investigate the associations between genetic variation and treatment response for a particular drug in terms of both efficacy and adverse events and have high sample size requirements. To improve the quality of pharmacogenetic studies and facilitate the Meta-analyses to investigate statistically significant associations, Strengthening the Reporting of Pharmacogenetic Studies (STROPS) guideline was developed in 2020 based on the Strengthening the Reporting of Genetic Association Studies (STREGA) statement. The objective of this article is to present a brief introduction to the STROPS guideline and an interpretation of the key points in some items with examples for the better understanding and application.

[Methodology progress and challenges on assessing the appropriateness of real-world data].

From the perspective of data users, ensuring the relevance and reliability of big data in healthcare and medicine via assessments on data appropriateness is a prerequisite for generating high-quality real-world evidence, which could guarantee good representativeness and generalizability of real-world studies. This review summarized the quality dimensions, definitions, evaluation indexes and calculating methods of assessment on the appropriateness of real-world data (RWD) according to guidance from different countries and international organizations, as well as exploring the opportunities and challenges for better assessing RWD appropriateness.

[How to report adaptive design randomized trials-A interpretation of international reporting guideline ACE].

Concerns has been raised in improving the quality of adaptive design randomized trials reports. Based on the CONSORT 2010 (Consolidated Standards of Reporting Trials), The Adaptive designs CONSORT Extension (ACE) has developed items and reporting specifications for adaptive design trials. This paper presents a brief explanation of the extension and new items of ACE and introduces the applications of ACE checklist with examples.